Supreme Court Clears the Way to End Venezuelan TPS as the Refugee Cap Rises to 17,500, Months After It Upheld Birthright Citizenship

On 5 October the Supreme Court sent back to the Ninth Circuit a ruling that had blocked the end of Temporary Protected Status for Venezuelans, in light of its June decision limiting court review of TPS terminations. DHS counts about 348,000 Venezuelans under the 2023 designation and about 268,000 under the 2021 one. Work permits extended under a May 2025 order expired on 2 October.

Three days earlier, the President’s determination setting the refugee ceiling for fiscal 2027 at 17,500 was published in the Federal Register, up from a record low of 7,500. Most places are reserved for Afrikaners from South Africa, under a February 2025 order.

The TPS ruling

Temporary Protected Status lets people from countries hit by war or disaster live and work in the US. The Homeland Security Secretary designates countries and can end designations. In Mullin v. Doe, decided 6 to 3 on 25 June, the Court held that the TPS law bars courts from reviewing terminations except on constitutional grounds. That allowed TPS to end for about 350,000 Haitians and about 6,000 Syrians. A district judge had found the Haiti termination racially motivated; the Supreme Court took the case before an appeals court ruled.

The Venezuela case now returns to the Ninth Circuit with that limit in place. Any remaining challenge has to be constitutional.

Birthright citizenship

The same Court, five days later, refused to let the President redefine citizenship. In Trump v. Barbara, decided 30 June, it struck down the executive order denying citizenship to children born in the US to parents who are here unlawfully or on temporary visas. Chief Justice Roberts wrote that the 14th Amendment makes such children citizens. Justice Kavanaugh agreed on narrower statutory grounds, making the judgment 6 to 3. Justices Thomas, Alito and Gorsuch dissented.

The difference is in what the law gives the President. Congress gave the executive wide discretion over TPS and wrote limits on court review into the statute. The citizenship clause is in the Constitution.

Refugees

The refugee ceiling is set by the President each year after consulting Congress. It was 125,000 for fiscal 2024. The 2026 cap of 7,500 was the lowest since the programme began in 1980. The new 17,500 figure more than doubles it, with priority for Afrikaners.

Enforcement and money

The policy runs alongside a large enforcement build-up funded through 2029 by the 2025 tax and spending law, covered in our post on ICE funding. Ending TPS moves hundreds of thousands of people who were lawfully present into removable status.

What Congress can do

TPS is a creature of statute, and Congress could change it: protect specific nationalities, restore court review or set termination procedures. Bills to protect Venezuelans have been introduced but haven’t moved. With the Court having left the decision to the executive and Congress, the next step for about 600,000 Venezuelans depends on one or the other.